Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
